Sunday, February 24, 2013

Wrath Of Gods

Picture above is poster of invitation to a religious ceremony in india .  As a statutory warning it says  that whoever  will try to move this poster  will probably have bad luck coming his way .  My friend paras posted this on facebook yesterday . Since they used the term "probably" and since  product we are  building at Signals deals with prediction and probability so I thought I should give it a shot to predict the probability of someone getting cursed with bad luck if He/ She try to remove /Flip this poster .

According to Bayes Theorem

P( Bad luck/Flip ) = [P(Flip/Bad Luck) X P(Bad Luck) ] /P(Flip)


P( Bad luck / Flip) : Probability that you will have bad luck , Given the fact that you fliped the board . 

P(Flip/Bad Luck) : Probability that someone who is unlucky has flipped the board . since  not all the unlucky person got to see the board so this probability is very low . 

P(Bad Luck) : Probability that any random person will have badluck . Since most people in world think that they are unlucky so this  will be very high .   

P(Flip ) = Probability that some random guy will flip the board . this will be low initially since most people don’t give a shit . one way or another . but if you expose it to enough number of stupid people ( like the author of this post  ). they will try it  just to see if it works . but initially it will be very small. 

so now we have this situation 

P( Bad luck/Flip )= [small number X Large Number ] / (Small number which can be large ).

Conclusion : 

There is a high probability that if you are amongst the first one to flip it  God almighty will punish you. but if you are the 1000th person to flip it than may be it wont be that big a deal for god almighty . 
Jai Mata Di
Photo Credit : @paraschopra